The industrial region of Donbas, internationally recognized as Ukrainian but partly controlled by the separatists, quickly became the flashpoint in a broader standoff that the U.S. and its allies had feared. For the referendum vote, 84% of eligible voters went to the polls, and more than 90% voted in favor of independence. Fast forward to 2013. The current difficulties date back to the overthrow in 2014 of the pro-Moscow Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych, prompting fears in the Kremlin that the country was moving into the orbit of the West. However, he added: The danger is serious, real. The alliance has said Ukraine is among three nations that are considered aspiring members. Russian state media began to deliver a flood of public reports about alleged atrocities taking place in the region, which Putin has repeatedly called a genocide. International monitors categorically deny thats the case. The most recent estimates prior to the invasion put the number of Russian troops on the border at close to 200,000. All the while, the Kremlins moves have created tension with key American partners in places like Germany, with Berlin and Washington at loggerheads about how to respond to Moscows aggression. 10 reasons why Russia had to invade Ukraine. All the relevant decisions have been taken. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Now that hes launched his invasion, the lingering question is, where will he stop? One year on, the war in Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines. Putin has also incorrectly stated that Russia gave Ukraine the right to break away, when in fact, the Ukrainian people voted overwhelmingly for independence in a 1991 referendum, The Washington Post reported. For years, Putin has railed against the Wests supposed perfidy in expanding NATO following the Soviet collapse. But a He said the borders that were drawn by Lenin and by Stalin, partially as a result of the First and Second World War, are illegitimate and have to go. The relationship had completely soured by 2014, when months of deadly protests and the toppling of Ukraines pro-Russian government culminated in Moscow annexing Ukraines Crimean Peninsula and Russia throwing its weight behind the separatist insurgency in Ukraines east. If those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point, says Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, pointing to the Soviet successor republics. Because of this, a lot of people on both sides of the border do not want to fight a war against each other. Over time, it sets an example for others in Russia who would like to become more democratic. In late 2021, military analysts helped draw the worlds attention to a concerning picture developing on Ukraines borders: Russia was massing thousands of troops around its neighbor. It provides a counter example to Russias autocratic dictatorial system. So its a very difficult tightrope to walk. The 2014 Crimea annexation is another example, Bowman notes, and Putin said on Feb. 22 that he wants the world to recognize that territory as rightfully Russian. There have been longstanding hostilities between the two since the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin laid out a series of bold security demands that would not only stop NATOs expansion to the east but push it back, viewing the drift of former Communist countries and Soviet republics into Washingtons orbit as an existential threat to Russia. told NBC News before the Ukraine invasion. Could Russia really attack the UK? Latvia and Estonia. Do you have a question youd like an expert to answer? Moldova itself could even shatter, if Russia decides to add the region to any new territory it might seize from Ukraine. War means war.. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider And whatever independence Belarus previously enjoyed has been effectively smothered by Russias embrace, with Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko turning his country into an effective vassal state for Moscow. Russia and Ukraine have a long-standing history and there has been tension between Moscow and Kyiv since People waving Russian flags in Donetsk (Alexei Alexandrov/AP). If Russia presses hard enough, Mr. Putin hopes he can strike a new security deal with NATO and Europe to avoid an open-ended conflict, and then it will be Americas turn to leave, taking its troops and missiles with it, Hill wrote. But if you punish him too severely, then you risk his doing even more dangerous things in order to protect himself personally. But, by all appearances, Putin increasingly wants to rewrite Europes security order wholesale: to roll back the democratic, NATO-led gains of the past two decades, all to redound to Moscows benefit. Those who understand the Kremlin best have issued repeated warnings to this effect. What President Putin has made clear is that this is about the total subjugation of Ukraine to Russia. I dont think that right now there is an imminent threat of escalation.. Such principles include territorial integrity, which is something that Russia committed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclearweapons and became independent. I don't know how he could have read that as anything other than American weakness, says Bowman, who served as an adviser to Republican senators for years. But as the Russian military buildup intensified, the U.S. and its allies warned that Putin could launch a devastating attack on Ukraine as early as January. Russias military abilities have grown as a result of a decadeslong program to reconstitute its power, Giles added, and the Kremlins confidence has grown because of the consistent failure of the West and Western institutions to deter its geopolitical ambitions. In Russia, the people had no say about whether to invade. The U.S. could stop a war with Ukraine if it acknowledged reality, Ben & Jerry's obviously didn't learn the lessons of WWII, How Ukraine matters to China, Iran and Venezuela. All rights reserved. That promise was kept. Goemans: I read his goals as twofold: he wants to reestablish directly or indirectly, by annexation or by puppet-regimes, a Russian empirebe it the former USSR or Tsarist Russia. Meanwhile, Europes broader stability appeared suddenly rickety, and nominally frozen conflicts turned hot. But Russia and Ukraine have had a difficult relationship for centuries. Some countries had already responded to Putins actions related to the Donbas, which the U.S. called the beginning of an invasion.. Ukraine, in particular, is a critical element of this ambition, Bowman adds. Seeing Ukraine slowly but surely drifting out of the Kremlins control and aligning with the West, Putin may have felt that the moment is right to reassert his long-held claims to extend Russias power, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said before the invasion. President Joe Biden on Thursday said he believed Putin was trying to restore the Soviet Union. Goemans:The principles of the International Order would be destroyed. Putin wants to reestablish a Russian empire and at the same time prevent a democratic encirclement around Russia. And since curiosity has no age limit adults, let us know what youre wondering, too. Fears escalated in early 2022 as the number of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine increased. Thats why he may do some very risky thingswhich is called gambling for resurrectionin the hope itll keep him in power. On Monday, Putin recognized Donetsk and Luhansk, two separatist regions in the Donbas, as independent states and ordered Russian troops in for a "peacekeeping" operation, a move that was widely seen as a pretext for war. Democracy stands., Tags: Ukraine, Russia, United States, NATO. Biden promised in a statement late on Feb. 23 that he would announce further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security.. The Kremlins official line amid the standoff centered on Putins demands for security guarantees that would include a stop to NATOs expansion eastward and giving Russia a formal veto on Ukraine ever joining the military alliance. Moscow specifically called for the removal of NATO forces and weapons from alliance members like Romania and Bulgaria, the latter of which doesnt even border Ukraine. "If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and in Europe will drastically change, especially for us, for Russia," Putin said Tuesday. To the contrary, weve spent months building with allies and partners these very significant consequences for Russia.. (ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images). And if its the latterand there are some indications in his speeches that he does mean the latterthen Poland and other countries are going to be justifiably worried. Experts and military analysts have been speculating for months on whether Putin intends to engage in a full-blown war with Ukraine. These developments from Moscows calls to reverse security arrangements not seen in decades to the surge in potential state fractures elsewhere all point in one, clear direction. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine.". In February 2022, Putin again claimed that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. I wrote about that in my first book, to explain why the First World War lasted for four years although the German leaders had already concluded in November 1914 that they couldnt win; they fought for another four years because they were afraid of domestic political punishment. In a televised address, Putin warned that Moscow's response would be "instant" if anyone tried to take on Russia. 6-min read. Hours later Putin did just that, while also promising to send Russian troops into the breakaway republics under the guise of peacekeepers.. Why would Russia want to invade Ukraine? Ukraines president, Viktor Yanukovych, wanted Ukraine to be loyal to Russia. In 2014, Russia took over an area in southern Ukraine called Crimea. Crimea Most of Russia's ports are iced over for about 6 months in a year and hence not useful for global trade by sea. And we must not underestimate it., He went on to accuse Nato of pouring oil on the fire by aiding Ukraine, adding: Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. Putin likely also viewed the West including the U.S., specifically as weak, Pomeranz adds, which could have impacted how much help he thought Ukraine would actually get. Israeli Minister's Call to 'Erase' Palestinian Village an Incitement to Violence, US Says, Exclusive-US Seeks Allies' Backing for Possible China Sanctions Over Ukraine War -Sources. He sees Ukrainians and Russians as brother nations and says that because Russia is the older brother, it should get to be in charge. Some observers and U.S. defense officials have suggested Putin might go further and try to remove the current democratically elected president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has kept Ukraines political course stubbornly aligned with the West. And because I'm more powerful than you, Ukraine, I can tell you what to do and with whom to associate, Bowman says. It also said it wanted NATO to roll back its military deployments in the region. The demands would significantly redraw Europes security landscape and were largely dismissed by Washington and the military alliance. And if those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estoniaall the successor republics are going to ask, Are we next? The new threats against Finland and Sweden, to warn them off from joining NATO, are also extremely concerning. IE 11 is not supported. It was founded in the 800s by a group of Vikings, the Varangians, who came from Northern Europe to rule over the local people. Putin is concerned over NATO's expansion and has falsely said Ukraine is committing genocide. 1. Ukrainians protested, kicked Yanukovych out of office, and elected a government that favored Europe rather than Russia. Indeed, it was a Color Revolution in Ukraine in 2014, which Putin mischaracterizes as a military coup. Even now, Russia's leader describes the biggest European invasion since the end of World War Two as a "special military operation". But the losses dont end there: The United Nations estimates that about 8,000 civilians including more than 400 children have died in Ukraine since the war began. Many countries, such as Canada, the U.K. and others in Europe, have followed suit. Those fears became reality this week, when the Russian leader launched a broad invasion. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had already said before Bidens sanctions announcement that his country would halt certification of the pipeline due to Russias actions. A similar buildup, although on a smaller scale, first unnerved the world in April. "I think that his ambitions are completely contrary to the place where the rest of the world has arrived," he added. 1. Putins statements on Ukraines history and statehood gave rise to a view among Russia observers that he saw the country as unfinished business and wanted to follow the annexation of Crimea with further action to bring Ukraine back under Moscows influence, as he looks to reconstitute a Moscow-led Eastern bloc reminiscent of Soviet times. Biden's sanctions may not stop Putin because the Russian leader's true goal are to rewrite the post-Cold War order The demands of the Russian government are inseparable from those of its authoritarian leader. Ukraine's foreign minister has accused Russia of starting a full-scale war and called on the UK to do "everything possible" to stop it. In the eight years since then, about 14,000 people have died, and 1 million people have fled to escape the fighting. The country reclaimed its spot atop the list after a one-year hiatus, while the United States moved up again in the annual rankings. Vanderbilt University provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation US. It all could have come down to Russias resources at that moment, Pomeranz says. The history of Crimea, part of Ukraine that was annexed by Russia in 2014, has been marked by fighting and conquest. In this article, a Goemans: I read his goals as twofold: he wants to reestablish directly or indirectly, by annexation or by puppet-regimes, a Russian As my colleague Alexander Downes at George Washington University has recently shown, regime change can be a catastrophic success.. But Russian aggression in eastern Europe is likely to increase anxiety among Natos members. I think Ukraine has always been a sore spot for Vladimir Putin, Pomeranz says. Why did Putin invade Ukraine in the first place? It is an integral part of our own history, culture, spiritual space," he said. By 1654, it included Kyiv and its Ukrainian peoples along with other lands and people from Europe and Asia. Soon, air-raid sirens wailed in Kyiv and battles raged across the country. beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin announces military operations in eastern Ukraine. Please submit a letter to the editor. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that despite these protests, most Ukrainians wanted ties with Russia. After hours of frenzied rumors and reports of Russian troop movements, Putin delivered his address and launched his attack. You have these rows of dominoes, one Color Revolution after another, and at the end of the domino series is Russia. The war included the famous Charge of the Light Brigade and was the conflict which made Florence Nightingale famous. (Getty Images photo / Jeff J. Mitchell), downloading the latest version of Internet Explorer, regime change can be a catastrophic success., Judith Pipher remembered as a trailblazer in the field of infrared astronomy, English professors cotranslation of poetry wins PEN American Literary Award. Everybody in academia and most of the world thinks that nationalism is the justification and the basis of a state. In this environment, even a small mistake, a glitch, a missed phone call, a mistranslation, a malfunctioning GPS can get out of hand really quickly. As Putin would have it, this roiling calamity of his own making is about reordering the post-Cold War consensus in Europe and perhaps evicting the U.S. from Europe entirely, unwinding the gains the West made in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. On Thursday afternoon, Biden announced new, harsher sanctions against Russia that he said were designed "to maximize the long-term impact on Russia and minimize the impact on the United States and our allies.". Tags: Department of Political Science, School of Arts and Sciences, thought leadership, Ukrainians demonstrate in London after Russias Vladimir Putin authorized large-scale attacks on Ukraine, with Russian troops invading the country. But he has an estimated 150,000 troops ringed around Ukraine and Mr Johnson warned all the evidence is that President Putin is indeed bent on a full-scale invasion of the Ukraine. Putin, however, has expressed concern that Ukraine has the knowledge and desire to obtain nuclear weapons, thus posing a threat to Moscow. But the rest of the world has moved forward. There will be rounds of arming andrearming. 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