This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy cant reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. Included in this guide: 1 Seagate Backup Plus Ul. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. Critical problems are the research questions, cast in terms of the concrete particulars of currently available knowledge and technique and of specific exemplars or models (eg. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. The two failure modes of a MAB algorithm are investing too much in one option early on, and then investing too little later on; in the former, you inefficiently buy too much information on an option which happened to have good luck but is not guaranteed to be the best at the expense of others (which may in fact be the best), while in the latter, you buy too little & risk permanently making a mistake by prematurely rejecting an apparently-bad option (which simply had bad luck early on). Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. Mark Zuckerberg, in 2004, wanted nothing more than to sell Facebook for a few million dollars so he could work on his P2P filesharing program, Wirehog, commenting that the sale price just needed to be large enough to propel Wirehog. Youtube was a dating site. Remember, you dont know anything else about the tech landscape in the 2000s, like that Google will go way up from its IPO, you dont know about Apples revival under Jobsall you know is that a social network will exist and will grow hugely. We do not know what a unicorn is like. It is now appreciated that of the factors needed to make the stored-program digital computer a technological reality only one was missing: the means to construct fast switching elements. So for the most part, traders clone popular strategies, but with certain probabilities, theyll randomly explore rarer apparently-unsuccessful strategies. (How do you force all relevant companies to sell tradable stakes? One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. The Educational Technology course is designed to prepare teachers for all different grade levels with skills, concepts and understanding among other skills to integrate technology in their lessons to enhance learning as well as to make learning more effective. Again, the issue with adoption is that the timing is so damn hard. There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. Use Answer Strategies. After 20 years with Schlumberger in various positions, she returned to academia as a full professor of chemical engineering at the U. of Houston, where she has served as Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program as an adjunct professor since January 2000. However, when I arrived back in Memphis on Monday morning, much to my surprise, the bank balance stood at nearly $135,272.2$32,000.01973. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. Three decades later, the book is highly dated, and the descriptions are of mostly historical interest for the development of various technologies (particularly in the 1990s). As we discussed earlier, optogenetics and expansion microscopy both begin from papers from other fields, some of which are quite old and which mostly had been ignored by other people. . Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. In hindsight the things that worked look like good ideas and the ones that failed look stupid, but sadly its not that obvious at the time. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. View 2 SanDisk Extreme Portab. By the time I left Venezuela, the oil price was on its way up, but the dip in oil price had certainly put a damper on plans for expanding the group. At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. But recent estimates [9, 10], which are summarized in Tables 7.1 and 7.2, indicate that this is not so, and that the balance of advantage in terms of sheer information-handling power may eventually like with the computer rather than the brain. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. and err During a recession and a cleantech backlash. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. The idea of VR was that straightforward an extrapolation of computer monitors, it was that overdetermined, and so compelling that VR pioneers resemble nothing so much as moths to the flame, garnering grants in the hopes that this time things will improve. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. Without the funds for the fuel companies, we couldnt have flown anyway. Freds luck held again. As time passes, the number of options may open up, and any of them may bypass what was formerly a necessary or serial dependency which was fatal. Santos, Ma.Miguela B. BSBA - FM2 Science,Technology and Society Reflection: Timing your Technology It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg was not the first and only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg; many people made social networking fortunes before himmaybe Orkut didnt make its Google inventor a fortune, but you can bet that MySpaces DeWolfe and Anderson did well. 2. Survival alone is highly chancy, and founders can often see times where it came down to a dice roll.10 Like historical events in general (Risi et al 2019), the importance of an event or change is often known only in retrospect. But the value of Pets.com stock still went to ~$0. Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. Hrleins efforts to translate success in certain areas (vitamin deficiency disease, chemotherapy of protozoal infections) into optimism about possibilities in other areas (cancer, antibacterial chemotherapy) was characteristic. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. All those huge initiatives and? When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. 9, 4 (1969)] There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. . In the 1980s, famed technologist Stewart Brand visited the equally-famed MIT Media Lab (perhaps the truest spiritual descendant of the MIT AI Lab) & Nicholas Negroponte, publishing a 1988 book, The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T. What do the curves say? Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). 2 PHILIPPINE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. An additional analogy from reinforcement learning is PSRL, which handles more complex problems by committing to a strategy and following it until the end and either success/failure. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. (TML). The speed of light imposes theoretical bounds on rates of information transfer, so that it was once reasonable to wonder whether these limits, in conjunction with physical limits to microminiaturization of switching and conducting elements, might give the biological system an irreducible advantage. Other words, we couldnt have flown anyway and better technologies have been.. 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