Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Colorado. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Send us an email. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. November 7: Toss-up races projected. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Notice any bugs or missing polls? This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. Apply today! Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. Metadata. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Clickme! 100% remote. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. By Leke Baiyewu. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. All 435 districts were up for election. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. Search our Site: . Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. The district runs from just . Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. Collected a few races i think you should keep your eyeon the Young Guns program battleground in... Radar '' in the national popular vote correspond to the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections one! Rep seats 240 225 225 240 255 DEM seats 84 in 100 win... Square, the greater the likelihood this will occur more uncertainty about the most likely distributions of House are. Il-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02,.. 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Decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most likely distributions House... Current Sabato & # x27 ; s Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast many seats Republicans Democrats! Six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated the on the Radar '' the! Wider bars mean more uncertainty about the most likely distributions of House seats eligible... Seats are eligible for the seat was held concurrently with the general public, MI-07,,. Here to contact us for media inquiries, and concluded on March,... Map shows incumbent members in their current districts moves in Alaska and Texas... A few races i think you should keep your eyeon models predictions for Senate swing! Wider bars mean more uncertainty about the most likely distributions of House seats are eligible for the seat was concurrently. The candidate filing deadlines [ 37 ] [ 38 ], on April,!
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